Now that Q1 is over, we decided to go over the predictions made at the end of 2010 for this year and see whether they are coming true. Here’s a snapshot of what MMA, Forrester Research and Mobile Marketer had predicted back then, and that we still believe in:
- As technology continues to evolve, mobile marketing messages will become increasingly personalized and therefore relevant. Additionally, the adoption of transparent, permission-based marketing along with the introduction of regulations and applications for blocking unwanted content will help overcome the perception that mobile advertising is nothing but spam. Mobile will be the only truly conversational and measurable medium that can lead to an real-time increase in business-to-consumer transactions. (MMA)
- Beyond messaging: the re-emergence of mobile blogging – As mobile phones become more sophisticated and feature-rich, more people are using them as a replacement for computers. With the growing adoption of tablets, users have greater speed, connectivity and battery life in their mobile devices. Several writers/bloggers are already using these devices to pen down their thoughts. (MMA)
- Continued proliferation of smartphones and mobile Internet advertising – It is expected that by 2011 over 85% of handsets shipped globally will have browser capabilities. (MMA)
- This is the year of the “dumb” smartphone user. Thanks to handset subsidies, smartphones will be available to the masses. Expect new smartphone users to be less engaged and active than the first cohorts of Android and iPhone early adopters. This only depends on consumer education (not on technology barriers anymore), so we shall expect an increase in mobile media consumption only in 2012. (Forrester Research)
- The mobile fragmentation problem will continue in 2011. Prioritizing mobile developments will still be a challenge, and cross-platform development has not yet been achieved successfully. (Forrester Research)
- The apps versus mobile Internet debate will continue — and remain irrelevant. This isn’t a question of either/or — but both. (Forrester Research)
- Mobile will increasingly prompt consumers to interact with their physical environment. Technologies such as QR codes and mobile augmented reality are already helping bridge the real and digital worlds via mobile devices. 2011 is — finally — the year that Near Field Communication (NFC) begins to matter. (Forrester Research)
- Companies will invest in convenient services for customers first; acquisition will come second. In the hierarchy of benefits that mobile offers — revenue generation, cost savings, and convenience — convenience will reign for the next year. However, for some industries, particularly in the retail space, we expect more and more companies to reach seven figures in direct mobile transactions. (Forrester Research)
- Location-based marketing could become one of the greatest values of mobile – but companies need to rethink about the business model behind it. Sending offers to people as they are walking into a store may require a previous opt-in, proving that permission-marketing is still key to deliver value. (Mobile Marketer)
- The mobile/social/local combo will explode in usage but generate little revenues. (Forrester Research)
We would love to hear your thoughts…